Each presidential election has its unique aspects that make it historic, but 2012 has more historical aspects than most. More money was spent than ever before, especially with the advent of “super pacs” (unaffiliated and unlimited spending). There was no natural Republican heir; President Obama seemed vulnerable leading to a host of potential GOP challengers; we seemed to have a different Republican frontrunner each month; former Governor Romney finally nailed down the nomination in June; and, we had the latest conventions ever — and back to back no less. For sure, this situation was dynamic, fluid and volatile; surprises dominated (who would have thought former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum would finish second); and throughout we learned to “expect the unexpected!”
Of course, 2012 will be known as an election where a sitting president stood for re-election. But, the effort for a second term occurred against the backdrop of wicked problems: crushing deficit and debt; high, consistent unemployment; intense national political divisions and polarization, especially concerning the Affordable Care Act (ACA); and a looming “fiscal cliff” (come January 2013 the Bush tax cuts expire and an automatic sequestration of across the board spending cuts kick in, both of which auger a return to recession).
The presidential election of 2008 saw nine “red states” (Republican in 2000 and 2004) go “blue” (Democrat): Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, Indiana, Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada. The 2010 midterm elections constituted the second “change” election in a row for a country whose politics could best be described as “no ordinary time” and “coalitions made of sand.” The midterm elections turned over control of the U.S. House to the Republicans as they won a whopping 66 seats — a modern record pickup. Moreover, for the first time in history, we had an alignment of a Republican House, Democratic Senate (barely), and a Democratic president.
After the Supreme Court upheld ACA, what seemed to be a run-of-the-mill re-election bid then became really interesting with a “game changing” first debate on October 3 when challenger Mitt Romney scored big and the president did not. The Republican states that went Democrat in 2008 became the battlegrounds, along with Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, New Hampshire, and even Pennsylvania at the close. Turnout and the swing voting blocks (independents and undecideds, persuables, suburbanites, Latinos and Hispanics, white southerners, and Republican women) were the key variables.
In the home stretch, governance questions came to dominate. For the president, it was: What will be the second-term agenda and how would an “Obama Two” both be an improvement over the first term while avoiding “the second-term blues,” since there has not been a successful second term in modern times? For the challenger, it was: What is his plan for taking over the government and chartering a new course; and how will this lead to an immediate improvement, with a President Romney at the helm steering the ship of state?
In the end, the American electorate had to decide if the economy and President Obama’s stewardship were as bad as other first-term presidents who were “fired” and denied a second term: Ford, Carter and George H.W. Bush. In the end, Hurricane Sandy provided another huge game- changer, since every day the country focused on disaster was a good day for the president and a bad day for his challenger because it took focus off the economy.
After billions spent and very intense campaigning, the majority of voters — in both the popular vote and Electoral College vote — chose the status quo: the re-election of a Democratic president, a Republican House, and an even slightly more Democratic Senate. Making all work with some coherence now becomes the task at hand. Finally, we all learned how difficult it is to dislodge a sitting president. Never ever underestimate the ability of a White House to spin things in their direction.
