ERIE — The Economic Research Institute of Erie today released its newest report of Erie Leading Index (ELI), which covers data from the second quarter of 2015.
According to economists, “as we enter the fall season, ELI continues to indicate that there is no impending ‘turning point’ in the generally positive trend in Erie employment since the Great Recession. However, after experiencing steady growth since February 2010 and reaching new highs in the past few quarters, ELI has settled down and appears to have reached somewhat of a plateau. In the second quarter of the year, ELI only grew by a very modest 0.05 percent. While this does not necessarily warrant sounding the alarm right away, we’ll need to pay close attention to whether ELI can resume its upward trajectory soon, and thereby signal improvement in Erie employment levels.”
Although total nonfarm employment in the local economy grew by 0.7 percent (on a seasonally adjusted basis) year-on-year in June 2015, research shows it fell by 0.7 percent during the second quarter.
According to ERIE, “so the overall employment situation in Erie continues to show modest long-term improvement, but with somewhat erratic short-term patterns.”
As of June, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in Erie was 5.5 percent, dipping slightly from the 5.6 percent in May and remaining below the 6.2 percent of a year ago. In June, Erie’s rate of unemployment remained roughly comparable to that of Pennsylvania (5.4 percent) and the United Statesas a whole (5.3 percent).
According to Ken Louie, director of ERIE, “as the newest ELI explains, there are some positive trends in several of the components that make up ELI. In particular, the number of U.S. residential housing permits (which usually signal upcoming increases in other types of economic production) increased by almost 29 percent in the second quarter. So despite ELI’s holding pattern, the strength of the national economy (which tends to lead the Erie economy in terms of economic activity) offers a reason for remaining optimistic.”
For more information, visit www.ERIEdata.org.
