ERIE – Economists from the Economic Research Institute of Erie (ERIE) today released the results of the Erie Leading Index (ELI), during the Manufacturer & Business Association’s annual Economic Forecast briefing.
According to ERIE Director Ken Louie, Ph.D., “Though it has been rising fairly consistently since 2010 as Erie recovered from the Great Recession along with the national economy, the Erie Leading Index (ELI) has apparently decided to take a holiday break this season from its steady five-year upward climb.”
The research shows that ELI has remained stable through the past few quarters and is currently hovering at just below 105. Overall, ELI grew by only 0.11 percent through the third quarter and even dipped slightly in August before picking back up again.
“Although this represents a slight improvement compared to the 0.05-percent growth that ELI saw in the previous quarter, it unfortunately is much less than the 2-percent growth that ELI enjoyed over the course of 2014,” reported Dr. Louie. “ELI’s anemic performance reflects the recent sluggish pace of growth in Erie total nonfarm employment, which rose on a seasonally adjusted basis by only 1.5% (2,000 jobs) year-on-year in September, and by only 0.54 percent (700 jobs) in the third quarter. While the rate of employment growth has been less robust than we would have liked to see, the modest improvement means that ELI is still managing to spread a little holiday cheer!”
According to ERIE economists, if recently announced plans by G.E. and Lord Corp. for possible job reductions locally are realized, Erie manufacturing as well as total employment are expected to decrease in the next several months, unless those anticipated job losses are offset by job gains in other parts of the local economy.
“We will therefore need to pay careful attention to see if ELI will be naughty or nice next quarter. Of course, our holiday wish is for ELI to hold its ground, based on the strength of its other input components, and continue to point to growth (or at least stability) in overall local employment,” stated Dr. Louie.
Erie’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in September remained at 5.5 percent, unchanged since June, and was just slightly higher than the unemployment rate in Pennsylvania (5.3 percent) and the nation as a whole (5.1 percent).
To view a copy of ELI, click here. To view Dr. Louie’s briefing presentation, click here.
More information is available at www.eriedata.org.
