Some early polls in the Governor’s race show Democrat Tom Wolf with a lead. But campaigns don’t start at Labor Day anymore and that lead will almost certainly shrink in the hot days of summer. Things will look very different in November than they do now. So, as the race heats up in the days ahead, here are five things to watch — the key factors that will help Tom Corbett win re-election:
1) THE ECONOMY. While the media loves to focus on divisive social issues, those aren’t what drive most voters. They vote their pocketbooks. Governor Corbett’s record on the economy is strong. Unemployment is down dramatically. Tens of thousands of new jobs have been created under his watch. And Governor Corbett has created the conditions, through less taxes and controlled spending, for long-term prosperity for all Pennsylvanians. His message of economic growth and new opportunities will continue to be very attractive.
2) THE WOLF TRAP. Tom Wolf had the good fortune of having the field to himself for a significant part of the Democratic primary season. He spent millions letting people know he drives a Jeep and is a nice guy. But he remains unknown in any real way to the vast majority of voters. They have written on the blank slate the characteristics they want in a governor. But when his views are put under the microscope, there’s a trap. The truth is that Tom Wolf is to the left of the Democrat Party much less the majority of Pennsylvania voters. How well they will respond to high taxes on everything (including a graduated state income tax) and spending schemes that will outrun even his high tax proposals remains to be seen. There’s also the matter of the tangled web of Wolf’s personal and financial dealings. His Democratic opponents raised some questions, most of them unanswered, yet boatloads remain. For example, how can Wolf tell us that we should be paying more taxes when he pays a far smaller federal tax rate than Mitt Romney, whom his fellow Democrats excoriated?
3) BARACK OBAMA. It’s not going to be a good year to be tied to the Obama administration. Nationally, Democrats in tight contests are already distancing themselves from the president. Wolf’s full-throated support for ObamaCare is an exception. If he doesn’t find some room on issues like Obama’s new environmental initiatives that threaten thousands of Pennsylvania jobs, it will be a big advantage for Corbett.
4) HISTORY. For 60 years, Pennsylvania voters have said they want eight years of one Party occupying the governor’s mansion followed by eight years of the other. No governor has lost re-election since we allowed governors to succeed themselves. While there’s nothing in the state constitution that guarantees this pattern, there are several good reasons for it. It’s not merely the “power of incumbency.” Dick Thornburgh nearly lost his re-election bid, Ed Rendell had low approval ratings going into his reelection year and there was “One Term Tom Ridge.” But voters consistently, over 15 elections and six decades, have said they like giving a party eight years to do the job before letting the other team take its turn at bat.
5) TOM CORBETT. They say that the governor has a secret weapon — Mrs. Corbett. She’s a very effective campaigner and her personal touch in early ads clearly helped to put a “human side” on the governor’s campaign. But the best weapon is still the governor himself. He’s won statewide elections half a dozen times, and he remains the all-time Republican vote-getter in a single election. He’s a fighter. He rises to the challenge. He’ll have the money, the right team, and a strong record to run on. When he hits the trail, he’s engaging and tenacious. He may have to run from behind for the early part of the race, but at the finish line he’ll be ahead.
