Are we better off than where we were a year ago? Is the glass half empty or half full? What’s in store for the coming year?
Well, the answer to those questions may be a sliver of a silver lining when it comes to the country’s continued economic recovery. Economists at the Economic Research Institute of Erie (ERIE), Penn State Erie’s outreach of the Sam & Irene Black School of Business, say the U.S. economy is expected to strengthen at a modest pace in 2015. In fact, forecasts by many of the world’s leading economic research institutions, they say, indicate that we should see a pickup of anywhere from 3- to 3.1-percent growth.
James Kurre, Ph.D., director emeritus at ERIE, explains that “one major reason for the anticipated improvement in 2015 — compared to 2014’s expected real GDP growth rate of 2.1 percent — is an expected improvement in the U.S. labor market, with the national unemployment rate continuing to fall and job growth picking up some momentum.”
Federal Reserve officials already had projected the jobless rate falling more than previously thought (receding to 6 percent or 6.1 percent by year-end and then to the mid-5 percent range and low-5 percent range in 2015). Still, experts suggest we still may be a few years away from regaining the ground lost during the 2007-2009 downturn.
According to Kurre, the current recovery was 64 months long in October 2014 — about six months longer than the average recovery
since World War II. However, the three most recent expansions lasted an average of 95 months. By that standard, he says, it wouldn’t be surprising for the recovery to continue for some time yet, considering that this expansion has been rather anemic in terms of job growth. Only recently did the country reach its previous employment peak — which hasn’t hit in Erie yet.
“The local economy is hardly the hard-charging stallion we’d like it to be — more like a torpid tortoise,” he says. “But then, the tortoise did beat the hare, didn’t he? Still, we can’t afford to put our future on hold waiting for that tortoise to plod along.”
Kenneth Louie, Ph.D., Kurre’s colleague and successor at ERIE, remains optimistic because there are positive indications that the
U.S. economy is continuing to recover from the Great Recession. Along with the slowly improving labor market, gradual increases in aggregate demand, he says, should provide a lift for the economy.
For full story, read December’s Business Magazine.
