For avid climbers, nothing compares to the breathtaking view from a mountain’s peak.
Yet, the slow and steady climb to the top can be absolutely grueling, testing the skills of even the most experienced adventure seekers. Along with the altitude and elements, they must overcome any challenges with endurance and strength.
In many ways, local economists say, this slow ascent is also one of the best ways to describe the economic outlook for the United States — and its modest projected growth in 2016.
Back in July, the U.S. Federal Reserve projected a 2016 growth rate for U.S. real GDP of between 2.4 percent and 2.7 percent. Yet, some other research institutions and prominent economic forecasters seem to be expecting growth rates for the coming year that are marginally higher.
The World Bank, as part of its global outlook summary, and Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s Survey of Professional Forecasters, the oldest quarterly survey of macroeconomic forecasts in the United States, expect U.S. real GDP to grow by 2.8 percent in 2016. Even a New York Times survey of a group of leading forecasters from economic
consulting and financial firms, as well as universities, produced a consensus estimate of 2.8-percent growth in U.S. real GDP in the year leading up to the November 2016 election.
“Barring any major shocks such as renewed turmoil in global financial markets, the U.S. economy is expected to lumber towards modestly higher levels of aggregate output, income and employment,” explains Ken Louie, Ph.D., director of the Economic Research Institute of Erie (ERIE) and associate professor of economics in the Black School of Business at Penn State Erie, the Behrend College. “While the climb is expected to be fairly smooth, albeit slow, some of the major indicators we should keep watching include labor market activity, shifts in fiscal and monetary policy, and potential spillover from adverse global economic and financial shocks.”
Learn more in the December 2015 Edition of the Business Magazine.
